Gulf of Trieste short-term forecast of biogeochemical sea water conditions.

The video shows the circulation and salinity distribution in the Gulf of Trieste during the TOSCA (Tracking Oil Spill and Coastal Awareness) experiment in April/May 2012. Results are obtained from a 1/320° horizontal resolution version of the MITgcm hydrodynamic model, forced with ALADIN meteorological data and measured Isonzo river discharge rates. From bottom-left, clockwise: hourly maps of surface circulation and salinity; 3D view of freshwater plumes (salinity lower than 36 PSU); time series of measured Isonzo River flow rate; wind direction and speed (ALADIN model) in the center of the domain.

A new operational forecasting system, nested in the northern Adriatic model, will be released soon. The latest version of the domain (figure above) features a higher horizontal resolution (1/768°) compared to the previous version (1/320°). The new short-term forecasts will be produced by the OGS ECHO research group by means of the coupled MITgcm-BFM modelling system. Data will be generated using the E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information dataset, through the 1/128° model of the northern Adriatic Sea, which will provide the initial and boundary conditions for the Gulf of Trieste model. The forecasting system will automatically run at the CINECA supercomputing centre (Bologna, Italy).

72-hour and 48-hour forecasts will be produced daily, after a 4-day hindcast, starting from northern Adriatic initial conditions. The two versions of the model will be forced by ALADIN and COSMO meteorological data, respectively. The model domain has been discretized with a horizontal resolution of 1/768° (6 time higher than the northern Adriatic nesting model: 140 m × 100 m) and 40 unequally spaced vertical levels. The system will consider the 4 major rivers flowing into the basin.

We acknowledge ARSO (Slovenian Environment Agency) for the meteorological data of the ALADIN model and Arpae-SIMC (HydroMeteorological Service of the Emilia-Romagna Regional Agency for Environmental Protection) for the meteorological data of the COSMO model .

For any additional information regarding the forecasting system, please contact echo@ogs.it